Is the Market Poised for a Shift? All Eyes on the FOMC Next Week

Next week marks the final FOMC meeting of the year, with the much-anticipated announcement at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday, December 18th. As traders and investors await clarity, a key question looms: will Jay Powell surprise the market? With the latest inflation data in hand, will the Fed Chair still deliver the expected rate cut that has a 99% probability priced in?

Timing major market turning points is always a challenge, but it offers valuable frameworks for short-term algorithmic trading strategies. Looking at the symmetry of past market cycles, the Nasdaq 100's night session (4:00 PM EST to 9:30 AM EST) saw its largest 21-month bull market cycle from March 2020 to December 16, 2021. Interestingly, a new bull market cycle began 21 months ago, in March 2023.

This Monday, December 16, aligns with the peak of the previous cycle. While predictions like these remain speculative, the potential symmetry signals the possibility of a market shift. For those trading Nasdaq futures, shorting rallies during the day session could be a strategy worth exploring.

With monetary policy as a potential catalyst, the coming week may set the stage for pivotal market moves.

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