Technical Bearish Indicators for Stock Indexes No One is Talking About

While the rally in the stock market since the April lows is one of the more impressive bullish moves in the history of the stock market, there is a stealth bearish technical pattern that has started in the second half of 2025 in the Nasdaq 100. There have only been two years in the history of the Nasdaq 100 that we have seen this pattern on an annual basis and both times, it has preceded a major correction.

In the history of the Nasdaq 100, when there is an annual return of more than 10% for the year and more than 100% of those gains are during the night session, we have seen a correction of at least 20%.

• In 2007, the Nasdaq 100 gained 18.01% on the year while the net gains during the day session were -1.12%. In 2008, the Nasdaq was down -41.93%.

• In 2024, the Nasdaq 100 gained 24.88% on the year while the net gains during the day session were -0.60%. The Nasdaq 100 had a correction in the first half of 2025 that completely wiped out all of the gains in 2024, trading down to the 2023 end of year levels, before recovering.

• Since July 1, 2025, through October 29, 2025, there has been a gain of 15.17% in the Nasdaq 100 while the day session gains are negative.

We are highlighting a pattern where major corrections have occurred after major gains in the Nasdaq 100 when the entire gain has been attributed to the nighttime trend and "gap ups".

While this window in 2025 since July 1 is much shorter window than an entire year, it resembles the same pattern that occurred on an annual basis before larger corrections in 2008 and at the beginning of 2025.

If you are a long term investor, recency bias can influence decision making so it is important to always be mentally prepared for the volatility in your account.

If you are an active investor or trader, there are many trading opportunities in this type of market environment.